On Tuesday, Sept. 14, The Gensler Group hosted their Economic Outlook webinar with special guest speaker, Burt White. He announced his retirement from LPL as a Chief Investment Officer prior to hosting the webinar, and it was a pleasure to gain some insight from him one last time. He spoke of the 2020 recession and the Economic Expansion of 2021.

2020 was one for the books. It was the shortest recession in history. Typically, recessions last a little under one year, but the 2020 recession lasted only two months. This has much to do with the Fed remaining active and flexible in Fiscal policy. Since May, the market has been on an upward trend heading into a great secular period. Markets tend to have an annual 10% pull-back, but White pointed out that the “market has been unusually calm, strong, and resilient,” despite any extraneous variables.

The economy has grown quickly from where it was in March of 2020. To survive, business owners needed to adapt to the evolving market and pivot their operations quickly. This type of adaptation contributed to the quick recovery and continuous expansion following the short recession.

Additionally, manufacturing of high price items has increased due to an all-time high of new orders. The housing market is up and “a strong housing market is the canary in the coalmine,” White said. When people buy a house, they are doing more than just purchasing a piece of property. A house requires furnishing, maintenance, and goods. Everything that goes into a house and the services to maintain it, make housing the largest stimulator of the economy. Although, this type of housing market is great for the economy, it is not sustainable and is a short-term bullish indicator.

The stock market has also seen all-time highs 53 times this year. The 2020 economic relief stimulus contributed to keeping things moving and the market recovery.

Overall, the economy is healthy. The stock market is up, wages are up, and jobs are available. Year one of the expansion has been great, but we should expect some short-term volatility if it should occur. Despite the short-term volatility, we are on a great trajectory of continuing a secular period of economic expansion.

The Gensler Group is a boutique Wealth Management Firm serving the community since 1995. For more information visit www.GenslerGroup.com or schedule an appointment with one of our Certified Financial Planners by call 619-554-1300.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is not guarantee of future results. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Disclosure: The Gensler Group is a Registered Investment Advisor. Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC

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